Gillingham 1-1 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Apr 2025

Gillingham
1-1 HT 0-0
Swindon Town
📅26/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Gillingham vs Swindon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.84
2-3 Goals
35%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.78
6+ Goals
11%
16.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 32% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.22
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
9%
5.9
X/2
18%
5.31
X/X
16%
4.49
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
15%
3.59
2/X
6%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
35%
-4.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+3.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gillingham v Swindon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 42%
+5% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -18%
1.19/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.27
-32% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -20%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
245 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 67%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
21.5 Crosses 20.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8

Gillingham vs Swindon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Swindon Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.53 xG 1.24
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
172 Passes 410
64% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.10.2024 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
13.02.2024 Gillingham Gillingham 2-2 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
24.10.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
28.01.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-3 HT 1-3 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
03.09.2022 Gillingham Gillingham 0-0 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
13.03.2021 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-3 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1

Gillingham 1-1 Swindon Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
1-1
AWAY Swindon Town
0.65 xG 0.42
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
142 Passes 268
53% Pass Accuracy 70%
17 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham and Swindon Town couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Swindon Town at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Gillingham had 42% of the ball to Swindon Town's 58%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.65 to 0.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Gillingham and 1.17 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Swindon Town?

Gillingham 1-1 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 31%, draw 28%, Swindon Town 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Swindon Town), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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