Harrogate Town 1-3 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Apr 2025

Harrogate Town
1-3 HT 1-1
Notts County
📅26/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Harrogate Town vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.87
Draw
31%
3.72
Away
40%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.27
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
8%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 30% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.24
1/2
9%
22.9
1/X
6%
16.5
X/1
8%
9.06
X/2
9%
4.19
X/X
18%
5.36
2/1
9%
35.0
2/2
22%
2.27
2/X
7%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
22%
+6.2pp
31%
Draw
23%
+7.5pp
41%
Away Win
54%
-13.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.6pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Harrogate Town v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 58%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.00/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.02
+16% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -28%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
223 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 77%
16.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
17.2 Crosses 15.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Harrogate Town vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harrogate Town
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Notts County
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.53 xG 1.45
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
233 Passes 504
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.10.2024 Notts County Notts County 1-0 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
06.04.2024 Notts County Notts County 3-0 HT 1-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
16.12.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
22.09.2020 Notts County Notts County 0-1 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town FAK
02.08.2020 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Notts County Notts County İBSL
13.08.2019 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İBSL

Harrogate Town 1-3 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harrogate Town
1-3
AWAY Notts County
1.59 xG 2.14
32% Ball Possession 68%
20 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 5
146 Passes 420
63% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 38
19 Crosses 30
POST-MATCH Harrogate Town vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County got the better of Harrogate Town 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Notts County as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Harrogate Town had 32% of the ball to Notts County's 68%, shots finished 20-16, expected goals 1.59 to 2.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Harrogate Town and 1.33 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Harrogate Town vs Notts County?

Harrogate Town 1-3 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harrogate Town vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Harrogate Town 29%, draw 31%, Notts County 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Notts County) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Notts County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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