Forli 1-1 Perugia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 26 Apr 2026

📅26/04/2026 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.29
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals
20%
3.8
6+ Goals
11%
17.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 30% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+8.0pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.4pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-3.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forli EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Perugia EU Bookmakers 48%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -31%
1.05/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.56
+0% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -36%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forli
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Perugia
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.12.2025 Perugia Perugia 4-0 HT 3-0 Forli Forli İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forli
1-1
AWAY Perugia
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Forli vs Perugia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forli and Perugia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Forli had 51% of the ball to Perugia's 49%, shots finished 10-8.

What was the final score of Forli vs Perugia?

Forli 1-1 Perugia in the Italy - Serie C on 26/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forli vs Perugia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Forli 35%, draw 25%, Perugia 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Perugia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Perugia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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