Southport 3-2 Scunthorpe United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
48%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.75
Over
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.9
No
60%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2.88
2-3
38%
1.77
4-5
19%
4.05
6+
8%
18.95
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.88 — our 35% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
25%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+3.9pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
48%
Away Win
51%
-3.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+7.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-7.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-9.0pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southport EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Scunthorpe United EU Bookmakers 56%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -15%
1.24/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/0.98
+1% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +25%
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
301 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southport
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Scunthorpe United
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
37% Ball Possession 63%
4 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.04.2024 Southport Southport 0-1 HT 0-0 Scunthorpe United Scunthorpe United İCON
21.11.2023 Scunthorpe United Scunthorpe United 1-0 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southport
3-2
AWAY Scunthorpe United
46% Ball Possession 54%
5 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Southport vs Scunthorpe United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southport nicked a narrow win over Scunthorpe United 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Scunthorpe United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Southport had 46% of the ball to Scunthorpe United's 54%, shots finished 5-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Scunthorpe United led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Southport and 1.00 for Scunthorpe United.

What was the final score of Southport vs Scunthorpe United?

Southport 3-2 Scunthorpe United in the England - Conference on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southport vs Scunthorpe United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Scunthorpe United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Southport 29%, draw 23%, Scunthorpe United 48%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Scunthorpe United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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