Mura 2-1 Celje — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 26 Oct 2025

Mura
2-1 HT 1-1
Celje
📅26/10/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
5.09
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
66%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.51
Over 2.5
52%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.08
2-3 Goals
41%
1.95
4-5 Goals
25%
2.57
6+ Goals
11%
6.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
7%
1/X
3%
X/1
4%
X/2
28%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
16%
-2.4pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.2pp
66%
Away Win
64%
+2.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
64%
-11.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.9pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mura EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Celje EU Bookmakers 69%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
0.92/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.72/1.16
-9% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -20%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
244 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 475 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mura
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Celje
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.08.2025 Celje Celje 3-0 HT 1-0 Mura Mura SLVN
13.04.2025 Celje Celje 2-1 HT 0-1 Mura Mura SLVN
16.02.2025 Mura Mura 0-0 HT 0-0 Celje Celje SLVN
19.10.2024 Celje Celje 4-3 HT 0-1 Mura Mura SLVN
03.08.2024 Mura Mura 1-0 HT 1-0 Celje Celje SLVN
06.04.2024 Mura Mura 1-3 HT 1-2 Celje Celje SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mura
2-1
AWAY Celje
32% Ball Possession 68%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mura vs Celje
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mura edged past Celje 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Celje at 66% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Mura had 32% of the ball to Celje's 68%, shots finished 8-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celje led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mura and 2.00 for Celje.

What was the final score of Mura vs Celje?

Mura 2-1 Celje in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mura vs Celje?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celje win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Mura 14%, draw 20%, Celje 66%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Celje) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Celje) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
SLVN More Slovenia - 1st Division
26 Oct 2025
19:30 Olimpija Ljubljana vs Domzale Analysis →