Exeter City 3-1 Bristol Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.8
Over
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No Pick
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2.96
2-3
41%
1.72
4-5
25%
3.57
6+
9%
15.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.5
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.5
X/1
10%
4.16
X/2
9%
8.2
X/X
11%
4.75
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
8%
6.42
2/X
6%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-1.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.15/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.33
-12% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
256 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 67%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
23.5 Crosses 15.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bristol Rovers
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.38 xG 1.03
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
234 Passes 236
67% Pass Accuracy 66%
20 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2024 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-3 HT 1-1 Exeter City Exeter City İNTK
03.02.2024 Exeter City Exeter City 0-1 HT 0-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
23.01.2024 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 0-1 HT 0-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
29.12.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3-4 HT 0-2 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
01.10.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 2-2 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
26.02.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-1 HT 1-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
3-1
AWAY Bristol Rovers
1.58 xG 2.16
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
326 Passes 286
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Bristol Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City got the better of Bristol Rovers 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Exeter City as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Exeter City had 53% of the ball to Bristol Rovers's 47%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.58 to 2.16 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bristol Rovers.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Exeter City had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Exeter City and 1.50 for Bristol Rovers.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Bristol Rovers?

Exeter City 3-1 Bristol Rovers in the England - 1st Division on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Bristol Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Exeter City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 49%, draw 26%, Bristol Rovers 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Exeter City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Exeter City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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