Carlisle United 0-1 Morecambe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.63
6+ Goals
8%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 32% vs market 27.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.4
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.85
X/1
12%
4.05
X/2
13%
8.65
X/X
13%
4.73
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
11%
6.92
2/X
6%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-9.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+7.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.7pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Morecambe EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -2%
1.35/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.52
-16% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
301 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 68%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
19.3 Crosses 16.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Morecambe
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.40 xG 1.09
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
283 Passes 210
66% Pass Accuracy 59%
22 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2024 Morecambe Morecambe 1-2 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İNTK
09.11.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 0-2 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İNTK
06.03.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 3-1 HT 2-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
27.10.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 3-1 HT 2-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
22.02.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-2 HT 1-2 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
07.12.2019 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
0-1
AWAY Morecambe
1.06 xG 2.24
62% Ball Possession 38%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 7
393 Passes 196
80% Pass Accuracy 66%
9 Box Touches 26
30 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Morecambe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Morecambe squeezed past Carlisle United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Carlisle United at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Carlisle United had 62% of the ball to Morecambe's 38%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 1.06 to 2.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carlisle United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Carlisle United and 1.33 for Morecambe.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Morecambe?

Carlisle United 0-1 Morecambe in the England - 2nd Division on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Morecambe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 43%, draw 28%, Morecambe 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Carlisle United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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