Palermo 1-2 Reggiana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.13
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 32% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.53
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.85
X/1
8%
4.22
X/2
10%
7.98
X/X
12%
4.6
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
12%
6.17
2/X
8%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.1pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palermo EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Reggiana EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.58/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.20
+13% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
383 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
25.0 Crosses 15.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palermo
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Reggiana
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.64 xG 0.97
53% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
340 Passes 323
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 4
29.08.2023 Reggiana Reggiana 1-3 HT 0-1 Palermo Palermo İTB
31.07.2022 Palermo Palermo 3-2 HT 2-0 Reggiana Reggiana İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palermo
1-2
AWAY Reggiana
2.10 xG 0.62
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
408 Passes 329
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
34 Box Touches 17
29 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palermo vs Reggiana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reggiana nicked a narrow win over Palermo 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Palermo at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Palermo had 55% of the ball to Reggiana's 45%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.10 to 0.62 — on chances, Palermo could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Palermo had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Palermo and 1.50 for Reggiana.

What was the final score of Palermo vs Reggiana?

Palermo 1-2 Reggiana in the Italy - Serie B on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palermo vs Reggiana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Palermo 45%, draw 27%, Reggiana 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Palermo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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