Tarazona 1-0 Ponferradina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.48
Over 2.5
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.09
No
65%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
42%
2.12
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
5.41
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.12 — our 42% vs market 39.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.9pp
31%
Draw
32%
-1.0pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-0.9pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.3pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.3pp
35%
BTTS Yes
44%
-8.8pp
65%
BTTS No
56%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tarazona EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponferradina EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +14%
0.75/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.77
-30% / +77% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +37%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
257 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tarazona
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Ponferradina
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
20.12.2024 Ponferradina Ponferradina 2-0 HT 0-0 Tarazona Tarazona İS3
24.03.2024 Tarazona Tarazona 2-0 HT 1-0 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS3
25.11.2023 Ponferradina Ponferradina 0-1 HT 0-0 Tarazona Tarazona İS3
POST-MATCH Tarazona vs Ponferradina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tarazona edged past Ponferradina 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 31% / 36% — and on the day Tarazona made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (65%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tarazona had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tarazona and 0.67 for Ponferradina.

What was the final score of Tarazona vs Ponferradina?

Tarazona 1-0 Ponferradina in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tarazona vs Ponferradina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ponferradina win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Tarazona 33%, draw 31%, Ponferradina 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ponferradina) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ponferradina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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