Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Keçiörengücü — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
34%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.97
Over 2.5
44%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.7
No
57%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.7
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
20%
3.41
6+ Goals
8%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 33% vs market 22.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.6
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.75
X/1
14%
4.62
X/2
10%
7.79
X/X
15%
5.21
2/1
7%
23.3
2/2
17%
5.78
2/X
5%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
49%
-11.8pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.2pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+7.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
47%
+9.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
53%
-9.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
55%
-11.6pp
57%
BTTS No
45%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +21%
1.16/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.37
-20% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
21.7 Crosses 15.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Keçiörengücü
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.82 xG 1.15
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
268 Passes 313
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
22.12.2024 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 0-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
12.07.2020 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 3-0 HT 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
22.12.2019 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 HT 0-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
17.12.2016 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 HT 1-2 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü S2-B
17.01.2016 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 3-1 HT 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük S2-K
06.09.2015 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-3 HT 0-2 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü S2-K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1-0
AWAY Keçiörengücü
2.03 xG 0.23
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
204 Passes 319
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük edged past Keçiörengücü 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Fatih Karagümrük made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 41% of the ball to Keçiörengücü's 59%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 2.03 to 0.23 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fatih Karagümrük's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Keçiörengücü led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 2.17 for Keçiörengücü.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü?

Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Keçiörengücü in the Turkey - 1st Division on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 37%, draw 29%, Keçiörengücü 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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