Stjarnan 2-4 Valur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 27 Apr 2026

📅27/04/2026 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.33
No
37%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
51%
-0.6pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.6pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.9pp
63%
BTTS Yes
71%
-8.4pp
37%
BTTS No
29%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stjarnan EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Valur EU Bookmakers 30%
+13% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
2.42/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.62
+21% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
20.7 Crosses 18.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stjarnan
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Valur
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.86 xG 1.82
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 7
330 Passes 314
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
37 Box Touches 29
24 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.10.2025 Valur Valur 3-2 HT 1-1 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
14.09.2025 Valur Valur 1-2 HT 1-2 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
01.07.2025 Valur Valur 3-1 HT 1-1 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZK
14.06.2025 Stjarnan Stjarnan 3-2 HT 1-1 Valur Valur İZL
23.09.2024 Valur Valur 2-2 HT 0-2 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
30.05.2024 Valur Valur 5-1 HT 2-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stjarnan
2-4
AWAY Valur
3.22 xG 1.74
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 3
400 Passes 226
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 14
35 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stjarnan vs Valur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valur beat Stjarnan 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Stjarnan at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Stjarnan had 62% of the ball to Valur's 38%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 3.22 to 1.74 — on chances, Stjarnan could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valur led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Stjarnan and 2.67 for Valur.

What was the final score of Stjarnan vs Valur?

Stjarnan 2-4 Valur in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 27/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stjarnan vs Valur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stjarnan win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Stjarnan 51%, draw 24%, Valur 26%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stjarnan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stjarnan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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