Stjarnan vs Valur Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Stjarnan v Valur — Team-Based Signals
Stjarnan vs Valur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Stjarnan 2-4 Valur — Actual Match Statistics
Valur beat Stjarnan 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Stjarnan at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Stjarnan had 62% of the ball to Valur's 38%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 3.22 to 1.74 — on chances, Stjarnan could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valur led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Stjarnan and 2.67 for Valur.
What was the final score of Stjarnan vs Valur?
Stjarnan 2-4 Valur in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 27/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Stjarnan vs Valur?
Before kick-off our model rated a Stjarnan win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Stjarnan 51%, draw 24%, Valur 26%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stjarnan) went the other way.