Mushuc Runa 0-2 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 27 Jul 2026

📅27/07/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.49
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
17%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
62%
-0.3pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.7pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+0.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 19%
+3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.76/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.73
+6% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
286 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 73%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
25.8 Crosses 15.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Libertad
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.03 xG 1.76
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
238 Passes 211
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2026 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 1-2 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
09.08.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-2 HT 1-1 Libertad Libertad EKV1
19.04.2025 Libertad Libertad 2-1 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
26.09.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 Libertad Libertad EKVK
03.08.2024 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 1-2 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
02.03.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
0-2
AWAY Libertad
1.98 xG 0.60
24 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 3
367 Passes 220
21 Box Touches 9
39 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad got the better of Mushuc Runa 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Mushuc Runa at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, shots finished 24-7, expected goals 1.98 to 0.60 — the balance of chances actually favoured Mushuc Runa.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Mushuc Runa and 1.67 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Libertad?

Mushuc Runa 0-2 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 27/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mushuc Runa win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 62%, draw 21%, Libertad 17%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mushuc Runa) ✗ Over 2.5
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