Dundee United 0-2 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.47
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
13.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.5
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
17%
4.48
X/2
9%
8.03
X/X
14%
4.93
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.4
2/2
12%
6.12
2/X
6%
14.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.4 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dundee United EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.31/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.41
+12% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
327 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 70%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
23.7 Crosses 22.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dundee United
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Kilmarnock
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.89 xG 1.76
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
270 Passes 201
69% Pass Accuracy 65%
35 Box Touches 21
28 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.08.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-1 HT 1-1 Dundee United Dundee United İKLK
01.02.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-0 HT 0-0 Dundee United Dundee United İKP
07.12.2024 Dundee United Dundee United 1-1 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
28.09.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 3-3 HT 0-1 Dundee United Dundee United İKP
24.05.2023 Dundee United Dundee United 0-3 HT 0-2 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
11.02.2023 Dundee United Dundee United 0-1 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dundee United
0-2
AWAY Kilmarnock
2.21 xG 1.49
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 6
336 Passes 204
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
40 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dundee United vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kilmarnock got the better of Dundee United 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Dundee United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Dundee United had 60% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 40%, shots finished 18-17, expected goals 2.21 to 1.49 — on chances, Dundee United could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Dundee United and 1.83 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Dundee United vs Kilmarnock?

Dundee United 0-2 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dundee United vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dundee United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Dundee United 48%, draw 25%, Kilmarnock 27%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dundee United) ✗ BTTS Yes
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