St. Mirren 1-0 Dundee FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.61
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.54
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 30% vs market 23.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.04
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.15
X/1
12%
4.05
X/2
7%
10.35
X/X
8%
5.42
2/1
12%
22.55
2/2
11%
8.49
2/X
7%
16.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
58%
-1.7pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.0pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundee FC EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +10%
1.31/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.62
+7% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
327 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 68%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
19.9 Crosses 18.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Mirren
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Dundee FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.37 xG 1.19
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
229 Passes 198
65% Pass Accuracy 61%
24 Box Touches 19
29 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2025 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
29.12.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-2 HT 1-1 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
31.08.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 2-2 HT 1-2 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
04.05.2024 Dundee FC Dundee FC 1-3 HT 0-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
07.02.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-0 HT 0-0 Dundee FC Dundee FC İKP
11.11.2023 Dundee FC Dundee FC 4-0 HT 2-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Mirren
1-0
AWAY Dundee FC
0.74 xG 0.62
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
339 Passes 289
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Mirren vs Dundee FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Mirren squeezed past Dundee FC 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had St. Mirren as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, St. Mirren had 53% of the ball to Dundee FC's 47%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.74 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dundee FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for St. Mirren and 1.83 for Dundee FC.

What was the final score of St. Mirren vs Dundee FC?

St. Mirren 1-0 Dundee FC in the Scotland - Premiership on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Mirren vs Dundee FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Mirren win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split St. Mirren 57%, draw 21%, Dundee FC 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Mirren), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Mirren) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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