Avispa Fukuoka 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
48%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.56
Over 2.5
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.32
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.81
6+ Goals
9%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.45
1/2
13%
30.5
1/X
9%
15.25
X/1
8%
6.56
X/2
12%
4.5
X/X
11%
3.95
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
23%
3.09
2/X
7%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
28%
-2.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
48%
Away Win
44%
+4.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-4.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+4.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.1pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 48%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
0.92/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.95
-14% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +31%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
260 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 80%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
16.3 Crosses 22.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.79 xG 1.19
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
268 Passes 323
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
11 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.06.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
04.06.2025 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
03.05.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
14.07.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
13.04.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 HT 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
03.12.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
1-2
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2.05 xG 2.94
40% Ball Possession 60%
20 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
320 Passes 497
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 24
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima squeezed past Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 40% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 60%, shots finished 20-17, expected goals 2.05 to 2.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.17 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Avispa Fukuoka 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 26%, draw 27%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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