Bolton Wanderers 3-1 Northampton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 28 Jan 2025

📅28/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.11
6+ Goals
10%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 27% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.74
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.95
X/1
21%
3.77
X/2
11%
13.45
X/X
10%
6.21
2/1
11%
22.55
2/2
7%
11.6
2/X
5%
20.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
65%
-11.0pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.8pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+9.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 17%
-1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
1.80/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.60
+7% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -15%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
357 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 198 · 66%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
20.9 Crosses 13.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bolton Wanderers
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Northampton Town
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.46 xG 0.58
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
343 Passes 269
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
28 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.10.2024 Northampton Town Northampton Town 2-4 HT 0-2 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
10.02.2024 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
21.10.2023 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 2-1 HT 2-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
18.03.2017 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 2-1 HT 0-0 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
26.11.2016 Northampton Town Northampton Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers İN1
26.08.2008 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 1-2 HT 0-2 Northampton Town Northampton Town İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bolton Wanderers
3-1
AWAY Northampton Town
0.84 xG 0.42
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
232 Passes 253
68% Pass Accuracy 72%
25 Box Touches 16
11 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bolton Wanderers vs Northampton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bolton Wanderers saw off Northampton Town 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bolton Wanderers as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Bolton Wanderers had 49% of the ball to Northampton Town's 51%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 0.84 to 0.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bolton Wanderers had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.17 for Northampton Town.

What was the final score of Bolton Wanderers vs Northampton Town?

Bolton Wanderers 3-1 Northampton Town in the England - 1st Division on 28/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bolton Wanderers vs Northampton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Bolton Wanderers 54%, draw 22%, Northampton Town 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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