Burton Albion 3-2 Reading — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 28 Jan 2025

📅28/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.96
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.54
6+ Goals
11%
14.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 28% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.37
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
9%
13.3
X/1
11%
5.16
X/2
10%
6.05
X/X
10%
4.57
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
20%
4.29
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Reading EU Bookmakers 36%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +8%
1.14/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.47
-17% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
291 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 74%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
20.3 Crosses 17.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Reading
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.80 xG 1.54
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
196 Passes 353
61% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.10.2024 Reading Reading 3-1 HT 2-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
20.04.2024 Burton Albion Burton Albion 3-2 HT 3-1 Reading Reading İN1
30.09.2023 Reading Reading 0-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
30.01.2018 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-3 HT 0-1 Reading Reading İNCL
23.12.2017 Reading Reading 1-2 HT 0-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNCL
07.05.2017 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-4 HT 0-2 Reading Reading İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
3-2
AWAY Reading
2.61 xG 1.97
30% Ball Possession 70%
12 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
169 Passes 515
71% Pass Accuracy 89%
30 Box Touches 27
25 Crosses 32
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Reading
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burton Albion nicked a narrow win over Reading 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Burton Albion made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Burton Albion had 30% of the ball to Reading's 70%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 2.61 to 1.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Reading led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Burton Albion and 2.17 for Reading.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Reading?

Burton Albion 3-2 Reading in the England - 1st Division on 28/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Reading?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burton Albion win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 38%, draw 26%, Reading 36%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burton Albion), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Burton Albion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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