Ards FC 2-1 Ballinamallard United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - 1st Division, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
38%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.54
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.06
6+ Goals
14%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
18%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
49%
-10.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
37%
Away Win
26%
+11.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.1pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ards FC EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Ballinamallard United EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -2%
1.72/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.64
-13% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ards FC
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ballinamallard United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
31.10.2025 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United 1-0 HT 0-0 Ards FC Ards FC KİRL1
09.08.2025 Ards FC Ards FC 3-1 HT 0-1 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United KİRL1
25.01.2025 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United 2-2 Ards FC Ards FC KİRL1
07.12.2024 Ards FC Ards FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United KİRL1
24.08.2024 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United 2-2 HT 2-0 Ards FC Ards FC KİRL1
20.04.2024 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United 0-5 HT 0-5 Ards FC Ards FC KİRL1
POST-MATCH Ards FC vs Ballinamallard United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ards FC edged past Ballinamallard United 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Ards FC found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ards FC and 1.17 for Ballinamallard United.

What was the final score of Ards FC vs Ballinamallard United?

Ards FC 2-1 Ballinamallard United in the North Ireland - 1st Division on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ards FC vs Ballinamallard United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ards FC win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ards FC 38%, draw 24%, Ballinamallard United 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ards FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ards FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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