Renate 3-1 Novara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 28 Mar 2026

📅28/03/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.59
Over 2.5
39%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.35
2-3 Goals
42%
1.7
4-5 Goals
16%
4.49
6+ Goals
8%
25.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
38%
-5.5pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.1pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+4.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.2pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Renate EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Novara EU Bookmakers 36%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +7%
1.16/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.17
-7% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Renate
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Novara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2025 Novara Novara 0-1 HT 0-0 Renate Renate İTC
23.02.2025 Novara Novara 1-0 HT 1-0 Renate Renate İTC
11.10.2024 Renate Renate 0-1 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
10.08.2024 Renate Renate 2-2 HT 0-2 Novara Novara İTCK
06.03.2024 Novara Novara 1-1 HT 0-0 Renate Renate İTC
28.10.2023 Renate Renate 2-2 HT 2-0 Novara Novara İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Renate
3-1
AWAY Novara
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Renate vs Novara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Renate saw off Novara 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 31% / 37%) promised a tight game; Renate found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Renate had 50% of the ball to Novara's 50%, shots finished 17-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Novara led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Renate and 1.17 for Novara.

What was the final score of Renate vs Novara?

Renate 3-1 Novara in the Italy - Serie C on 28/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Renate vs Novara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Renate 33%, draw 31%, Novara 37%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Novara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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