Los Angeles FC 3-2 Portland Timbers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.47
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.52
2-3 Goals
39%
2.01
4-5 Goals
28%
2.65
6+ Goals
13%
6.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.77
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.4
X/1
16%
3.9
X/2
5%
13.0
X/X
8%
7.06
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.8
2/2
8%
9.0
2/X
9%
16.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 12% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
64%
-4.0pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.8pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+3.2pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-3.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.3pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Los Angeles FC EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Portland Timbers EU Bookmakers 20%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.16/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.69
+17% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
387 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
32.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
18.4 Crosses 13.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Los Angeles FC
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Portland Timbers
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.54 xG 1.21
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
406 Passes 278
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 2-2 HT 2-1 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC ABD
10.09.2023 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 2-0 HT 1-0 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC ABD
05.03.2023 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 3-2 HT 2-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
02.10.2022 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 1-2 HT 0-0 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC ABD
11.05.2022 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABDK
07.03.2022 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 1-1 HT 0-1 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Los Angeles FC
3-2
AWAY Portland Timbers
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
401 Passes 307
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
POST-MATCH Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Los Angeles FC nicked a narrow win over Portland Timbers 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Los Angeles FC as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Los Angeles FC had 54% of the ball to Portland Timbers's 46%, shots finished 20-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Los Angeles FC had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Los Angeles FC and 1.33 for Portland Timbers.

What was the final score of Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers?

Los Angeles FC 3-2 Portland Timbers in the USA - Major League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Los Angeles FC vs Portland Timbers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Los Angeles FC win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Los Angeles FC 60%, draw 23%, Portland Timbers 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Los Angeles FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Los Angeles FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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