KTP Kotka 3-2 Jaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 28 Jun 2025

📅28/06/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
36%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.71
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
3.41
6+ Goals
9%
12.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.17
1/2
9%
26.0
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
14%
6.25
X/2
15%
5.46
X/X
14%
4.95
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
12%
3.39
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
36%
Away Win
40%
-3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Jaro EU Bookmakers 43%
-13% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
0.70/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/1.12
-47% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
349 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 72%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.1 Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KTP Kotka
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Jaro
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.84 xG 1.20
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
124 Passes 185
52% Pass Accuracy 62%
23 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.04.2025 Jaro Jaro 2-3 HT 1-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
25.08.2024 Jaro Jaro 1-2 HT 0-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
14.07.2024 Jaro Jaro 5-2 HT 4-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
13.05.2024 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-0 HT 1-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2
18.09.2022 Jaro Jaro 4-2 HT 2-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FINY
26.08.2022 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-1 HT 0-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KTP Kotka
3-2
AWAY Jaro
1.51 xG 1.98
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 9
410 Passes 302
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH KTP Kotka vs Jaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KTP Kotka squeezed past Jaro 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; KTP Kotka found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, KTP Kotka had 55% of the ball to Jaro's 45%, shots finished 10-21, expected goals 1.51 to 1.98 — on chances, Jaro could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, KTP Kotka had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for KTP Kotka and 2.17 for Jaro.

What was the final score of KTP Kotka vs Jaro?

KTP Kotka 3-2 Jaro in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 28/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KTP Kotka vs Jaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a KTP Kotka win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split KTP Kotka 36%, draw 28%, Jaro 36%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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