Backa Topola 1-0 Novi Pazar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.02
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
15%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.8pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.8pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.4pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 33%
+6% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +15%
1.35/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.37
+33% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
17.5 Crosses 14.1
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Backa Topola
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Novi Pazar
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.10 xG 1.34
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
372 Passes 290
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.04.2025 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-2 HT 1-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
24.02.2025 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 2-1 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
21.09.2024 Backa Topola Backa Topola 5-2 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
02.04.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 3-4 HT 2-2 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
29.10.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
04.05.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 4-0 HT 2-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRBK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
1-0
AWAY Novi Pazar
1.19 xG 1.53
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 5
366 Passes 301
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
6 Box Touches 25
7 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs Novi Pazar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Backa Topola nicked a narrow win over Novi Pazar 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Backa Topola as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Backa Topola had 53% of the ball to Novi Pazar's 47%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.19 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Backa Topola had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Backa Topola and 1.67 for Novi Pazar.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs Novi Pazar?

Backa Topola 1-0 Novi Pazar in the Serbia - Super League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs Novi Pazar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 47%, draw 22%, Novi Pazar 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Backa Topola) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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