Mura 0-2 Olimpija Ljubljana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
48%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
2.97
2-3 Goals
43%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
3.54
6+ Goals
11%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 27% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
19%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
29%
-0.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.4pp
48%
Away Win
45%
+3.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.6pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mura EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Olimpija Ljubljana EU Bookmakers 49%
+4% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.38/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.06
+21% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mura
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Olimpija Ljubljana
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 1
19.07.2025 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 1-0 HT 0-0 Mura Mura SLVN
10.05.2025 Mura Mura 1-1 HT 1-1 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVN
12.03.2025 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 2-1 HT 1-0 Mura Mura SLVN
24.11.2024 Mura Mura 0-1 HT 0-0 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVN
01.09.2024 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 4-0 HT 0-0 Mura Mura SLVN
05.05.2024 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 0-0 HT 0-0 Mura Mura SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mura
0-2
AWAY Olimpija Ljubljana
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Mura vs Olimpija Ljubljana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Olimpija Ljubljana got the better of Mura 2-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Olimpija Ljubljana as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mura had 55% of the ball to Olimpija Ljubljana's 45%, shots finished 13-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olimpija Ljubljana led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Mura and 1.50 for Olimpija Ljubljana.

What was the final score of Mura vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

Mura 0-2 Olimpija Ljubljana in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mura vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

Before kick-off our model rated an Olimpija Ljubljana win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Mura 28%, draw 24%, Olimpija Ljubljana 48%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Olimpija Ljubljana), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Olimpija Ljubljana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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