Detroit City 0-1 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+2.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-2.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.4pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Detroit City EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 45%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +19%
1.02/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.06
-37% / +77% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +28%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
338 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
15.7 Crosses 19.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Detroit City
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Louisville City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.05 xG 1.96
50% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
293 Passes 280
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 2-0 HT 1-0 Detroit City Detroit City USLP
22.09.2024 Detroit City Detroit City 2-1 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
30.05.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 5-1 HT 1-1 Detroit City Detroit City USLP
29.10.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 4-0 HT 2-0 Detroit City Detroit City USLP
20.07.2023 Detroit City Detroit City 2-0 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
08.04.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Detroit City Detroit City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Detroit City
0-1
AWAY Louisville City
1.31 xG 1.09
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
281 Passes 139
76% Pass Accuracy 58%
25 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Detroit City vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City squeezed past Detroit City 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Louisville City made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Detroit City had 60% of the ball to Louisville City's 40%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.31 to 1.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Detroit City and 2.17 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Detroit City vs Louisville City?

Detroit City 0-1 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Detroit City vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Detroit City 34%, draw 28%, Louisville City 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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