Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic Prediction — Model Probabilities
Monterey Bay v Sacramento Republic — Team-Based Signals
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Monterey Bay 1-0 Sacramento Republic — Actual Match Statistics
Monterey Bay shaded a tight game against Sacramento Republic 1-0. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Sacramento Republic at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. Nothing to argue with on goals either — under 2.5 goals (57%) came home.
Under the surface, possession split 53% to 47% in Monterey Bay's favour, shots finished 9-4, expected goals 0.85 to 0.43.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.50 a game for Monterey Bay against 1.33 for Sacramento Republic.
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic Result & Final Score
Monterey Bay 1 - 0 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 25%, draw 31%, Sacramento Republic 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sacramento Republic) went the other way.