Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Monterey Bay v Sacramento Republic — Team-Based Signals
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-1
Sacramento Republic
USLP
0-1
HT 0-1
Monterey Bay
USLP
Monterey Bay 1-0 Sacramento Republic — Actual Match Statistics
Monterey Bay squeezed past Sacramento Republic 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (29% / 34% / 37%) promised a tight game; Monterey Bay found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Monterey Bay had 53% of the ball to Sacramento Republic's 47%, shots finished 9-4, expected goals 0.85 to 0.43.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Monterey Bay and 1.33 for Sacramento Republic.
What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic?
Monterey Bay 1-0 Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic?
Before kick-off our model rated an Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 29%, draw 34%, Sacramento Republic 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sacramento Republic) went the other way.