Cesena 2-1 Carrarese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 28 Oct 2025

📅28/10/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.9
No
46%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.66
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
4.14
6+ Goals
12%
20.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.79
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
10%
13.5
X/1
19%
4.57
X/2
9%
7.52
X/X
10%
4.17
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
28.0
2/2
12%
6.04
2/X
7%
14.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 7% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+2.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.8pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cesena EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Carrarese EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.29/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.51
+1% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
347 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
21.9 Crosses 17.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cesena
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Carrarese
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.42 xG 2.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
322 Passes 431
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
29.12.2024 Carrarese Carrarese 2-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB
18.08.2024 Cesena Cesena 2-1 HT 2-0 Carrarese Carrarese İTB
05.03.2024 Carrarese Carrarese 3-2 HT 1-1 Cesena Cesena İTC
30.10.2023 Cesena Cesena 2-1 HT 1-0 Carrarese Carrarese İTC
23.12.2022 Carrarese Carrarese 1-1 HT 0-1 Cesena Cesena İTC
04.09.2022 Cesena Cesena 1-2 HT 1-0 Carrarese Carrarese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cesena
2-1
AWAY Carrarese
1.85 xG 0.63
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
355 Passes 522
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cesena vs Carrarese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cesena squeezed past Carrarese 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cesena as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Cesena had 42% of the ball to Carrarese's 58%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.85 to 0.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cesena's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carrarese led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cesena and 1.67 for Carrarese.

What was the final score of Cesena vs Carrarese?

Cesena 2-1 Carrarese in the Italy - Serie B on 28/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cesena vs Carrarese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cesena win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cesena 46%, draw 27%, Carrarese 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cesena), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cesena) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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