Albirex Niigata 3-3 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 29 Mar 2025

Albirex Niigata
3-3 HT 1-1
Gamba Osaka
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2025

Albirex Niigata vs Gamba Osaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.62
Over 2.5
51%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
4.47
6+ Goals
10%
23.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.98
1/2
9%
33.5
1/X
9%
14.05
X/1
14%
5.47
X/2
12%
5.56
X/X
9%
4.07
2/1
8%
33.0
2/2
16%
4.07
2/X
7%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.0pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.3pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+2.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
58%
-8.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
42%
+8.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Albirex Niigata v Gamba Osaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 38%
-5% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.12/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.27
-6% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
404 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
18.1 Crosses 16.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.3

Albirex Niigata vs Gamba Osaka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.95 xG 1.80
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
421 Passes 361
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.11.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
02.03.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
17.09.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
28.05.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-3 HT 0-2 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
14.10.2017 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
01.04.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-3 HT 1-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP

Albirex Niigata 3-3 Gamba Osaka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
3-3
AWAY Gamba Osaka
0.79 xG 2.41
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
612 Passes 363
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata and Gamba Osaka couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 60% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 40%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.79 to 2.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gamba Osaka led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Albirex Niigata and 1.50 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Gamba Osaka?

Albirex Niigata 3-3 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 38%, draw 25%, Gamba Osaka 37%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Albirex Niigata) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✓ Over 2.5
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