St. Mirren 2-2 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 29 Oct 2025

St. Mirren
2-2 HT 1-1
Hearts
📅29/10/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2025/2026

St. Mirren vs Hearts Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
49%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.67
6+ Goals
10%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 30% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
5.72
1/2
8%
24.85
1/X
10%
14.2
X/1
10%
7.56
X/2
16%
4.64
X/X
11%
4.71
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
25%
2.7
2/X
6%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
27%
-2.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
49%
Away Win
47%
+2.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Mirren v Hearts — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 51%
+6% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +16%
1.05/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.08
-7% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +14%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
226 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 72%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.7
21.0 Crosses 23.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

St. Mirren vs Hearts Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Mirren
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Hearts
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.15 xG 0.86
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 7
189 Passes 316
64% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.08.2025 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-1 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKLK
26.02.2025 Hearts Hearts 3-1 HT 0-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
10.02.2025 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-1 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKK
19.10.2024 Hearts Hearts 4-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
21.09.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-1 HT 2-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
15.05.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 1-1 Hearts Hearts İKP

St. Mirren 2-2 Hearts — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Mirren
2-2
AWAY Hearts
1.01 xG 1.57
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 7
210 Passes 243
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 27
24 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Mirren vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Mirren and Hearts couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Hearts at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, St. Mirren had 48% of the ball to Hearts's 52%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 1.01 to 1.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for St. Mirren and 2.00 for Hearts.

What was the final score of St. Mirren vs Hearts?

St. Mirren 2-2 Hearts in the Scotland - Premiership on 29/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Mirren vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split St. Mirren 24%, draw 27%, Hearts 49%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hearts), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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