Hearts 3-1 St. Mirren — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 26 Feb 2025

📅26/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.82
No
44%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.18
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.75
6+ Goals
11%
15.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.75 — our 26% vs market 21.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.38
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.8
X/1
13%
4.31
X/2
9%
8.63
X/X
11%
4.73
2/1
8%
24.3
2/2
13%
6.93
2/X
7%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
52%
-8.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+6.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.0pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 26%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.63/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.46
+20% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
275 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 191 · 58%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
25.7 Crosses 23.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
3W-2D-1L
AWAY St. Mirren
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.32 xG 0.89
51% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 8
301 Passes 254
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2025 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-1 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKK
19.10.2024 Hearts Hearts 4-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
21.09.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-1 HT 2-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
15.05.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 1-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
06.04.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-2 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
23.12.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
3-1
AWAY St. Mirren
1.34 xG 1.14
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
288 Passes 209
73% Pass Accuracy 65%
18 Box Touches 26
27 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hearts vs St. Mirren
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts saw off St. Mirren 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hearts as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hearts had 55% of the ball to St. Mirren's 45%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.34 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Hearts and 1.00 for St. Mirren.

What was the final score of Hearts vs St. Mirren?

Hearts 3-1 St. Mirren in the Scotland - Premiership on 26/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs St. Mirren?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Hearts 43%, draw 27%, St. Mirren 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hearts), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hearts) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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