St. Mirren 1-1 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - League Cup, 16 Aug 2025

📅16/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
37%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.68
Over 2.5
52%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.88
No
44%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.72
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.31
6+ Goals
11%
21.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.88
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
28.0
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
17%
6.27
X/2
14%
4.65
X/X
14%
4.28
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
14%
3.11
2/X
6%
14.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.0 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+3.9pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
37%
Away Win
42%
-5.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
49%
+7.4pp
44%
BTTS No
51%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 46%
+55% / +55% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -41% / -41%
2.02/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.27/2.05
+75% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -84% / -45%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
140 · 48% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 66%
13.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Mirren
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Hearts
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.07 xG 1.37
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 7
223 Passes 272
67% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2025 Hearts Hearts 3-1 HT 0-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
10.02.2025 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-1 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKK
19.10.2024 Hearts Hearts 4-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
21.09.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-1 HT 2-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
15.05.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 1-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
06.04.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-2 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
POST-MATCH St. Mirren vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Mirren and Hearts shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for St. Mirren and 2.17 for Hearts.

What was the final score of St. Mirren vs Hearts?

St. Mirren 1-1 Hearts in the Scotland - League Cup on 16/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Mirren vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split St. Mirren 34%, draw 29%, Hearts 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hearts), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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