Walsall 2-0 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.32
Draw
18%
4.81
Away
16%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.06
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
2.85
6+ Goals
9%
8.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.06 — our 29% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.57
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
4%
22.1
X/1 EV+ ✓
36%
3.46
X/2
7%
18.35
X/X
8%
7.31
2/1
5%
23.4
2/2
5%
14.8
2/X
6%
22.55
Value flag · X/1 at 3.46 — our 36% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
71%
-5.0pp
18%
Draw
18%
+0.4pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.5pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Walsall EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.60/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.56
-15% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
422 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 70%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
25.7 Crosses 12.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Walsall
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Newport County
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.87 xG 0.96
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
248 Passes 187
67% Pass Accuracy 60%
19 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.02.2024 Walsall Walsall 0-3 HT 0-3 Newport County Newport County İN2
20.10.2023 Newport County Newport County 3-3 HT 2-1 Walsall Walsall İN2
18.02.2023 Walsall Walsall 1-1 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
06.08.2022 Newport County Newport County 0-1 HT 0-0 Walsall Walsall İN2
01.01.2022 Walsall Walsall 3-3 HT 0-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
18.09.2021 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 1-1 Walsall Walsall İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Walsall
2-0
AWAY Newport County
0.96 xG 0.18
33% Ball Possession 67%
13 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
162 Passes 426
65% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 8
18 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Walsall vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Walsall saw off Newport County 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Walsall as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Walsall had 33% of the ball to Newport County's 67%, shots finished 13-4, expected goals 0.96 to 0.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Walsall and 2.00 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Walsall vs Newport County?

Walsall 2-0 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Walsall vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Walsall win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Walsall 66%, draw 18%, Newport County 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Walsall), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Walsall) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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