Aktobe 2-1 Yelimay Semey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Cup, 30 Apr 2026

📅30/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.73
No
60%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
38%
+6.6pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.1pp
31%
Away Win
35%
-3.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
54%
-14.0pp
60%
BTTS No
46%
+14.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aktobe EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Yelimay Semey EU Bookmakers 38%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.00/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.00
-28% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
341 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aktobe
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Yelimay Semey
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
21.03.2026 Aktobe Aktobe 1-4 HT 1-0 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey KAZP
10.08.2025 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey 2-1 HT 0-1 Aktobe Aktobe KAZP
11.05.2025 Aktobe Aktobe 1-0 HT 0-0 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey KAZP
31.08.2024 Aktobe Aktobe 1-3 HT 1-1 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey KAZP
19.06.2024 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey 2-1 HT 0-1 Aktobe Aktobe KAZKK
16.06.2024 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey 2-2 HT 1-1 Aktobe Aktobe KAZP
POST-MATCH Aktobe vs Yelimay Semey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aktobe nicked a narrow win over Yelimay Semey 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Aktobe as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Yelimay Semey led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aktobe and 2.17 for Yelimay Semey.

What was the final score of Aktobe vs Yelimay Semey?

Aktobe 2-1 Yelimay Semey in the Kazakistan - Cup on 30/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aktobe vs Yelimay Semey?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aktobe win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Aktobe 45%, draw 24%, Yelimay Semey 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aktobe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aktobe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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