Gremio 1-3 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 30 May 2026

📅30/05/2026 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.8
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
33%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.62
Over 2.5
49%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
4.32
6+ Goals
8%
22.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.57
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
12%
13.45
X/1
15%
6.08
X/2
13%
5.1
X/X
11%
3.92
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
34.0
2/2
16%
3.48
2/X
6%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+5.5pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
33%
Away Win
39%
-5.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
58%
-6.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
42%
+6.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.4pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 43%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
1.09/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.25
-23% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 82%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
18.5 Crosses 17.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Corinthians
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.92 xG 1.45
42% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
273 Passes 399
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2025 Corinthians Corinthians 2-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
13.06.2025 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 1-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
08.12.2024 Gremio Gremio 0-3 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
08.08.2024 Gremio Gremio 0-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BRK
01.08.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRK
26.07.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 2-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
1-3
AWAY Corinthians
1.50 xG 1.89
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 8
232 Passes 378
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 24
7 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ Gremio vs Corinthians
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Corinthians beat Gremio 3-1 away from home in the Brazil - Serie A on 30 May 2026. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Gremio had 41% of the ball to Corinthians's 59%, shots finished 10-24, expected goals 1.50 to 1.89.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians lead the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Gremio and 1.33 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Corinthians?

Gremio 1-3 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 30/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Gremio 38%, draw 29%, Corinthians 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gremio), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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