Bahia 2-1 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 30 May 2026

📅30/05/2026 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
2.91
6+ Goals
9%
8.81
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.06 — our 28% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.68
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
22%
4.9
X/2
8%
7.34
X/X
7%
5.34
2/1
7%
21.8
2/2
12%
4.99
2/X
13%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+0.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-2.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.7pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.48/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.30
-4% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
21.0 Crosses 15.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Botafogo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.47 xG 1.33
52% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
397 Passes 350
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.10.2025 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
04.05.2025 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
25.08.2024 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
08.08.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BRK
31.07.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BRK
06.05.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 1-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
2-1
AWAY Botafogo
2.43 xG 1.12
69% Ball Possession 31%
24 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 4
432 Passes 167
87% Pass Accuracy 70%
46 Box Touches 13
48 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 5
FAQ Bahia vs Botafogo
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Bahia edged past Botafogo 2-1 in the Brazil - Serie A on 30 May 2026. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Bahia had 69% of the ball to Botafogo's 31%, shots finished 24-13, expected goals 2.43 to 1.12.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia have the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bahia and 0.67 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Botafogo?

Bahia 2-1 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 30/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Bahia 48%, draw 26%, Botafogo 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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