Hartberg 0-1 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.29
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
52%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
1.95
Over 2.5
61%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.46
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
27%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.51
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
6%
14.15
X/1
8%
7.53
X/2
18%
4.77
X/X
7%
4.99
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
35.0
2/2
28%
2.73
2/X
9%
13.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 35.0 — our 6% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
27%
-0.7pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.7pp
52%
Away Win
47%
+4.4pp
39%
Under 2.5
48%
-8.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
52%
+8.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartberg EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 51%
+5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +15%
1.20/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.30
-6% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
322 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 75%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
14.3 Crosses 19.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartberg
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.16 xG 1.63
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
292 Passes 300
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.09.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
09.11.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-2 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
11.08.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 1-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
05.05.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 0-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
14.04.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-3 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
10.03.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartberg
0-1
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.81 xG 1.31
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
236 Passes 347
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hartberg vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz edged past Hartberg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hartberg had 42% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 58%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.81 to 1.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Hartberg and 1.67 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?

Hartberg 0-1 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Hartberg 26%, draw 22%, Sturm Graz 52%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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