Libertad 1-1 Barcelona SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
46%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.9
Over 2.5
55%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.7
No
41%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+0.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
46%
Away Win
43%
+2.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
49%
-4.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
51%
+4.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
55%
+4.7pp
41%
BTTS No
45%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona SC EU Bookmakers 48%
+12% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +14%
1.36/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.28
+13% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
278 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
19.8 Crosses 18.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Barcelona SC
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.70 xG 0.98
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
226 Passes 350
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2025 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 1-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
29.06.2025 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 3-3 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
02.03.2025 Libertad Libertad 1-4 HT 0-2 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
30.09.2024 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 0-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
15.04.2024 Libertad Libertad 0-3 HT 0-3 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
22.10.2023 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 1-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
1-1
AWAY Barcelona SC
2.26 xG 1.68
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
277 Passes 247
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Box Touches 13
49 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Barcelona SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad and Barcelona SC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Barcelona SC at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Libertad had 53% of the ball to Barcelona SC's 47%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 2.26 to 1.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona SC led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Libertad and 2.00 for Barcelona SC.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Barcelona SC?

Libertad 1-1 Barcelona SC in the Ecuador - Premier on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Barcelona SC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona SC win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Libertad 31%, draw 24%, Barcelona SC 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Barcelona SC), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Barcelona SC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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