Macara 2-0 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.45
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
18%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
27%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
65%
-2.8pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.4pp
18%
Away Win
15%
+3.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macara EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 18%
-9% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +7%
1.09/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.67
-8% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 73%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
22.2 Crosses 13.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macara
3W-1D-2L
AWAY El Nacional
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.63 xG 1.12
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
240 Passes 209
76% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.10.2025 El Nacional El Nacional 2-0 HT 2-0 Macara Macara EKV1
14.09.2025 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-1 Macara Macara EKV1
18.05.2025 Macara Macara 1-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
11.08.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-3 HT 0-2 Macara Macara EKV1
09.03.2024 Macara Macara 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
18.12.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 2-1 Macara Macara EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macara
2-0
AWAY El Nacional
2.08 xG 0.77
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 7
310 Passes 193
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Macara vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macara got the better of El Nacional 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Macara as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Macara had 60% of the ball to El Nacional's 40%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 2.08 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macara had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Macara and 1.00 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Macara vs El Nacional?

Macara 2-0 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macara vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macara win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Macara 62%, draw 20%, El Nacional 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Macara) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Macara) ✗ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EKV1 More Ecuador - Premier
30 Nov 2025
00:30 Uni. Catolica vs Orense Analysis →
03:00 Libertad vs Barcelona SC Analysis →
21:00 Aucas vs Deportivo Cuenca Analysis →