Alfreton Town 2-1 Leamington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 30 Dec 2025

📅30/12/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
21%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.09
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.52
6+ Goals
8%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 31% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-1.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
21%
Away Win
22%
-1.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.7pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Leamington EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
1.68/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.29
-6% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / +27%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfreton Town
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Leamington
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.03.2025 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Leamington Leamington İCON
20.08.2024 Leamington Leamington 2-2 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
01.04.2023 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Leamington Leamington İCON
08.10.2022 Leamington Leamington 1-2 HT 1-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
23.04.2022 Leamington Leamington 1-2 HT 0-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
27.11.2021 Leamington Leamington 0-3 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfreton Town
2-1
AWAY Leamington
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alfreton Town vs Leamington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfreton Town nicked a narrow win over Leamington 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Alfreton Town as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alfreton Town had 46% of the ball to Leamington's 54%, shots finished 15-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Alfreton Town and 0.67 for Leamington.

What was the final score of Alfreton Town vs Leamington?

Alfreton Town 2-1 Leamington in the England - Conference on 30/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfreton Town vs Leamington?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfreton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Alfreton Town 52%, draw 27%, Leamington 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alfreton Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alfreton Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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