Bellinzona 1-1 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 31 Mar 2025

📅31/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.75
Over 2.5
56%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.76
No
43%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.89
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.72
6+ Goals
11%
16.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.72 — our 26% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
30%
+7.0pp
23%
Draw
28%
-5.2pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-1.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
53%
-9.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
47%
+9.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.6pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 46%
-14% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +18%
0.92/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/1.18
-37% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
269 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
15.8 Crosses 10.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bellinzona
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Aarau
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.06 xG 1.71
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
266 Passes 351
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2025 Aarau Aarau 2-1 HT 0-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
09.11.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-4 HT 0-3 Aarau Aarau İSV2
31.08.2024 Aarau Aarau 1-2 HT 1-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
26.04.2024 Aarau Aarau 0-2 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
29.03.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 5-2 HT 1-2 Aarau Aarau İSV2
08.10.2023 Aarau Aarau 1-2 HT 1-2 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bellinzona
1-1
AWAY Aarau
1.82 xG 1.15
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
220 Passes 254
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bellinzona vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bellinzona and Aarau couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 23% / 41% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Bellinzona had 48% of the ball to Aarau's 52%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.82 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bellinzona had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Bellinzona and 1.67 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Bellinzona vs Aarau?

Bellinzona 1-1 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 31/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bellinzona vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aarau win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Bellinzona 37%, draw 23%, Aarau 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aarau), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aarau) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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