Nagoya Grampus 3-0 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 31 May 2025

📅31/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.44
6+ Goals
8%
23.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.54 — our 34% vs market 32.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.04
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.7
X/1
10%
4.73
X/2
10%
7.07
X/X
13%
4.04
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
17%
5.66
2/X
6%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-5.6pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+6.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.6pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.34/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.32
-19% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
343 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 78%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
17.1 Crosses 14.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.35 xG 1.60
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
327 Passes 516
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.11.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-3 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
18.09.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-0 HT 2-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
09.03.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
05.08.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-0 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
01.04.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-3 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
10.09.2016 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
3-0
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.63 xG 0.23
41% Ball Possession 59%
17 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
230 Passes 380
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus swept aside Albirex Niigata 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Nagoya Grampus found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 41% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 59%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.63 to 0.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 0.83 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Albirex Niigata?

Nagoya Grampus 3-0 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 31/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 39%, draw 28%, Albirex Niigata 33%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nagoya Grampus), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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