Cruzeiro 1-0 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.52
Over 2.5
46%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.16
No
53%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.19
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
5.12
6+ Goals
9%
32.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.65
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
12%
14.7
X/1
15%
4.14
X/2
7%
7.85
X/X
9%
3.74
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
12%
7.01
2/X
5%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
49%
+2.0pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.5pp
23%
Away Win
23%
+0.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
62%
-8.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
38%
+8.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.3pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 26%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +11%
1.42/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.18
-1% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
322 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 81%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
24.9 Crosses 17.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.74 xG 0.84
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
317 Passes 420
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.04.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
16.01.2025 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo HAZ
16.09.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
03.06.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
03.11.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
25.06.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
1-0
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.93 xG 0.92
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 9
254 Passes 415
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro edged past Sao Paulo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 40% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 60%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.93 to 0.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.00 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

Cruzeiro 1-0 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 51%, draw 26%, Sao Paulo 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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