Botafogo 4-1 Bragantino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.05
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
3.53
6+ Goals
11%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 30% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.19
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
16%
4.12
X/2
10%
9.33
X/X
12%
4.86
2/1
11%
23.65
2/2
10%
7.67
2/X
5%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Bragantino EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -5%
1.45/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.55
+13% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
347 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 78%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
22.1 Crosses 17.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Bragantino
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.86 xG 1.01
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
338 Passes 312
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.08.2025 Bragantino 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BRK
30.07.2025 Botafogo Botafogo 2-0 HT 2-0 Bragantino BRK
12.04.2025 Bragantino 1-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
27.10.2024 Bragantino 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
27.06.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 1-1 Bragantino BR1
14.03.2024 Bragantino 1-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
4-1
AWAY Bragantino
2.14 xG 0.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
394 Passes 355
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Bragantino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo ran out comfortable winners over Bragantino 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo had 51% of the ball to Bragantino's 49%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 2.14 to 0.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Botafogo and 0.50 for Bragantino.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Bragantino?

Botafogo 4-1 Bragantino in the Brazil - Serie A on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Bragantino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 51%, draw 24%, Bragantino 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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