Philadelphia Union 1-2 New York City FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 2 Mar 2026

📅02/03/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.04
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.58
6+ Goals
12%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 32% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
3.03
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
8%
4.92
X/2
12%
6.7
X/X
12%
4.45
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
14%
4.89
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.8pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.5pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY New York City FC EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +24%
1.74/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.23
-2% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +31%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
300 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
21.0 Crosses 13.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Philadelphia Union
3W-0D-3L
AWAY New York City FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.64 xG 1.47
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
290 Passes 366
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 22
27 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2025 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 0-1 HT 0-1 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
05.10.2025 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-0 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
13.04.2025 New York City FC New York City FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
19.09.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 1-5 HT 1-3 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
16.05.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-2 HT 0-2 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
27.01.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 1-3 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
1-2
AWAY New York City FC
2.07 xG 2.43
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 4
350 Passes 408
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 30
24 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC edged past Philadelphia Union 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Philadelphia Union at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 47% of the ball to New York City FC's 53%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 2.07 to 2.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.00 for New York City FC.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?

Philadelphia Union 1-2 New York City FC in the USA - Major League on 02/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 43%, draw 24%, New York City FC 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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