Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Philadelphia Union v New York City FC — Team-Based Signals
Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Philadelphia Union 1-2 New York City FC — Actual Match Statistics
New York City FC edged past Philadelphia Union 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Philadelphia Union at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Philadelphia Union had 47% of the ball to New York City FC's 53%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 2.07 to 2.43.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.00 for New York City FC.
What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?
Philadelphia Union 1-2 New York City FC in the USA - Major League on 02/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?
Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 43%, draw 24%, New York City FC 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.