Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 2 May 2026

📅02/05/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.89
Over 2.5
64%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.38
No
35%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.4
2-3 Goals
38%
2.1
4-5 Goals
29%
2.42
6+ Goals
14%
4.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.73
1/2
6%
25.0
1/X
7%
11.9
X/1 EV+ ✗
20%
5.51
X/2
9%
7.34
X/X
11%
6.37
2/1
9%
19.7
2/2
16%
4.23
2/X
6%
12.3
Value flag · X/1 at 5.51 — our 20% vs market 13.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.0pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.5pp
36%
Under 2.5
31%
+4.8pp
64%
Over 2.5
69%
-4.8pp
65%
BTTS Yes
68%
-3.6pp
35%
BTTS No
32%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
1.95/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.70
+33% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
392 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 80%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
14.3 Crosses 12.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
4W-1D-1L
AWAY RB Leipzig
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.02 xG 1.47
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
413 Passes 443
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.12.2025 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-3 HT 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
25.01.2025 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-2 HT 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
31.08.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 HT 2-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
20.01.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-3 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
19.08.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 HT 2-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
23.04.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
4-1
AWAY RB Leipzig
4.42 xG 1.22
55% Ball Possession 45%
23 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
449 Passes 356
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
35 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen swept aside RB Leipzig 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (65%) came in.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 55% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 45%, shots finished 23-14, expected goals 4.42 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.67 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?

Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 45%, draw 24%, RB Leipzig 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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