Bayern Münih 3-3 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 2 May 2026

📅02/05/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.29
Draw
15%
5.71
Away
14%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
4.0
Over 2.5
65%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
10.45
2-3 Goals
36%
2.61
4-5 Goals
25%
2.21
6+ Goals
18%
2.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.39
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
3%
20.85
X/1
27%
4.14
X/2
7%
20.65
X/X
7%
11.05
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
17.0
2/2
4%
15.2
2/X
5%
23.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.0 — our 14% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
73%
-2.5pp
16%
Draw
15%
+1.1pp
14%
Away Win
12%
+1.6pp
35%
Under 2.5
22%
+13.7pp
65%
Over 2.5
78%
-13.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.3pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 15%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -7%
2.91/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.95
+50% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +16%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
440 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
41.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
19.6 Crosses 16.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Heidenheim
3.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
3.05 xG 1.25
72% Ball Possession 28%
19 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
700 Passes 215
90% Pass Accuracy 74%
41 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2025 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-4 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
19.04.2025 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-4 HT 0-3 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
07.12.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-2 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
06.04.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 3-2 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
11.11.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-2 HT 2-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
03.04.2019 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 5-4 HT 1-2 Heidenheim Heidenheim AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
3-3
AWAY Heidenheim
75% Ball Possession 25%
23 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
13 Corners 5
604 Passes 155
89% Pass Accuracy 68%
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih and Heidenheim shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Bayern Münih at 71% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 75% of the ball to Heidenheim's 25%, shots finished 23-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.83 goals for Bayern Münih and 1.83 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Heidenheim?

Bayern Münih 3-3 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 02/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 71%, draw 16%, Heidenheim 14%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayern Münih) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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