Pianese 4-2 Ascoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 3 Jan 2026

📅03/01/2026 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.04
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
48%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.52
Over 2.5
44%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.16
No
54%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
33%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+6.2pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.6pp
48%
Away Win
50%
-1.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.4pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pianese EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Ascoli EU Bookmakers 54%
+19% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.54/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.50
+65% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +84%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
260 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pianese
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Ascoli
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
23.08.2025 Ascoli Ascoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Pianese Pianese İTC
06.01.2025 Pianese Pianese 1-1 HT 0-1 Ascoli Ascoli İTC
02.09.2024 Ascoli Ascoli 1-0 HT 1-0 Pianese Pianese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pianese
4-2
AWAY Ascoli
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pianese vs Ascoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pianese saw off Ascoli 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ascoli at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pianese had 38% of the ball to Ascoli's 62%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ascoli led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Pianese and 0.67 for Ascoli.

What was the final score of Pianese vs Ascoli?

Pianese 4-2 Ascoli in the Italy - Serie C on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pianese vs Ascoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ascoli win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Pianese 28%, draw 24%, Ascoli 48%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ascoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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