St. Mirren 1-0 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.65
6+ Goals
10%
14.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.44
1/2
9%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
13%
5.42
X/2
17%
6.23
X/X
10%
4.66
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
27.5
2/2
9%
4.28
2/X
7%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 11% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.8pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -5%
1.37/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.50
-4% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
281 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 73%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
26.8 Crosses 19.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Mirren
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Aberdeen
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.86 xG 1.21
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
201 Passes 337
64% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.01.2025 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-3 HT 0-2 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
23.11.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-1 HT 1-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
11.08.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-1 HT 1-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
02.03.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-1 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
30.12.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-3 HT 0-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
27.08.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Mirren
1-0
AWAY Aberdeen
1.22 xG 0.47
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 11
193 Passes 361
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 33
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Mirren vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Mirren squeezed past Aberdeen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) promised a tight game; St. Mirren found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, St. Mirren had 38% of the ball to Aberdeen's 62%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 1.22 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Mirren had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for St. Mirren and 1.17 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of St. Mirren vs Aberdeen?

St. Mirren 1-0 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Premiership on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Mirren vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Mirren win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split St. Mirren 40%, draw 25%, Aberdeen 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Mirren) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Mirren) ✗ BTTS Yes
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