Atlanta United 3-1 CF Montreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
36%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.56
No
40%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
13%
9.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.83
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
12%
5.07
X/2
13%
7.1
X/X
12%
5.09
2/1
8%
23.1
2/2
14%
4.78
2/X
6%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.5 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+6.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.3pp
60%
BTTS Yes
60%
-0.5pp
40%
BTTS No
40%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +25%
1.41/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.63
-3% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
354 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 81%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
20.1 Crosses 13.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY CF Montreal
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.91 xG 1.43
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
416 Passes 385
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2025 CF Montreal CF Montreal 1-1 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
23.02.2025 Atlanta United Atlanta United 3-2 HT 1-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
23.10.2024 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-2 HT 0-2 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
03.10.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-2 HT 1-1 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
14.07.2024 CF Montreal CF Montreal 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
24.09.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 4-1 HT 2-1 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
3-1
AWAY CF Montreal
1.23 xG 0.92
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
398 Passes 348
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs CF Montreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlanta United saw off CF Montreal 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Atlanta United made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Atlanta United had 53% of the ball to CF Montreal's 47%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.23 to 0.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atlanta United and 1.50 for CF Montreal.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs CF Montreal?

Atlanta United 3-1 CF Montreal in the USA - Major League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs CF Montreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 40%, draw 25%, CF Montreal 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlanta United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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