Mechelen 1-0 Gent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 3 May 2026

📅03/05/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
39%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.74
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
10.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.79
1/2
7%
25.0
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
17%
5.97
X/2
11%
5.65
X/X
8%
4.98
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.5
2/2
20%
3.49
2/X
11%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
39%
Away Win
38%
+1.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.0pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mechelen EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Gent EU Bookmakers 42%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +5%
1.58/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.52
+27% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 77%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
19.3 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mechelen
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Gent
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.29 xG 1.73
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
388 Passes 366
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.04.2026 Gent Gent 1-1 HT 1-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
08.03.2026 Gent Gent 3-1 HT 2-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
16.08.2025 Mechelen Mechelen 1-1 HT 1-0 Gent Gent BEL
07.02.2025 Mechelen Mechelen 3-3 HT 1-1 Gent Gent BEL
15.09.2024 Gent Gent 2-0 HT 2-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
04.05.2024 Mechelen Mechelen 2-4 HT 2-3 Gent Gent BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mechelen
1-0
AWAY Gent
0.74 xG 1.68
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
337 Passes 329
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mechelen vs Gent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mechelen edged past Gent 1-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 25% / 39%) promised a tight game; Mechelen found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mechelen had 51% of the ball to Gent's 49%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.74 to 1.68 — on chances, Gent could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gent led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mechelen and 2.33 for Gent.

What was the final score of Mechelen vs Gent?

Mechelen 1-0 Gent in the Belgium - Pro League on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mechelen vs Gent?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gent win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mechelen 36%, draw 25%, Gent 39%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gent) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BEL More Belgium - Pro League
3 May 2026
17:00 Royal Antwerp vs Standard Liege Analysis →
19:30 Anderlecht vs Club Brugge Analysis →
20:15 Dender EH vs La Louvière Analysis →