Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 3 Jul 2026

📅03/07/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
2.98
6+ Goals
9%
9.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 30% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.7
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
14%
4.86
X/2
9%
7.34
X/X
13%
5.11
2/1
9%
22.65
2/2
17%
5.11
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-4.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.1pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shelbourne EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundalk EU Bookmakers 31%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -18%
1.22/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.03
-11% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
332 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 70%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
17.5 Crosses 23.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shelbourne
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Dundalk
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.20 xG 1.04
52% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 Passes 275
73% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
01.05.2026 Dundalk Dundalk 1-2 HT 0-1 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
03.04.2026 Shelbourne Shelbourne 2-3 HT 0-2 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
30.08.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-1 HT 0-1 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
07.06.2024 Shelbourne Shelbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
03.05.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-0 HT 0-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
29.03.2024 Shelbourne Shelbourne 2-1 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shelbourne
2-1
AWAY Dundalk
1.93 xG 0.95
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 5
238 Passes 278
18 Box Touches 31
3 Crosses 32
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Shelbourne vs Dundalk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shelbourne squeezed past Dundalk 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Shelbourne as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Shelbourne had 43% of the ball to Dundalk's 57%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.93 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shelbourne had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Shelbourne and 0.83 for Dundalk.

What was the final score of Shelbourne vs Dundalk?

Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk in the Ireland - Premier League on 03/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shelbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Shelbourne 42%, draw 25%, Dundalk 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shelbourne), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shelbourne) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İRL More Ireland - Premier League
3 Jul 2026
21:45 Drogheda United vs Bohemians Analysis →
21:45 Derry City vs Waterford FC Analysis →
21:45 St Patricks vs Galway United Analysis →
21:45 Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers Analysis →